Daily Market Dispatch – April 1, 2025. For informational purposes only. not financial or investment advice.

01 Apr 2025, 14:32

Daily Market Dispatch – April 1, 2025 For informational purposes only; not financial or investment advice. Overview: Tariff Tremors Set the Tone On the first day of Q2, investor attention is locked onto “Liberation Day,” with President Trump’s anticipated trade policy announcement due Wednesday and new tariffs set to take effect Thursday. These evolving dynamics have influenced risk appetite across asset classes, prompting renewed focus on macro positioning. U.S. equities have experienced notable recalibration in recent weeks, while recession expectations have begun to surface more prominently. Bitcoin dominance has edged up to 62%—a signal that traders are favoring defensive allocation within the crypto complex. Long-term positioning remains intact, but near-term momentum appears tethered to unfolding macro headlines. Bitcoin & Crypto Outlook The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained above 30 for a third consecutive session, suggesting that while caution persists, sentiment has not tipped into extreme fear. This reinforces the view that markets are in a wait-and-see mode. Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the $82K–$85K range after experiencing a period of directional recalibration in Q1. The asset is navigating this zone with key support at $82,000 and upside potential toward $86,500 and $90,000 if broader sentiment stabilizes. Both the Stochastic oscillator and MACD – two indicators that help track market momentum – are nearing oversold levels. This typically suggests that downward pressure may be losing steam, and a potential shift in direction could be approaching. Despite closing Q1 with a pullback, Bitcoin has led key benchmarks since Election Day, up 22% versus a 3% decline in the S&P 500. With stablecoin reserves on exchanges remaining high and ETF flows steady, long-term structural support appears resilient. Traders continue to monitor the $78K–$88K range for signs of breakout or renewed accumulation, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls seen as the next directional catalyst. Ethereum & Altcoins ETH is adjusting around the $1,830–$1,870 range, with Q1 performance reflecting broader recalibration in high-beta assets. Ethereum has reclaimed its position as the top smart contract platform by DEX volume, overtaking Solana for the first time since September. This shift reflects evolving usage patterns rather than capital flight, particularly as Ethereum’s L2 ecosystem matures. Altcoins showed modest gains over the past 24 hours, reflecting cautious market participation. Solana rose 3.1% to $128, BNB climbed 1.2% to $613, and Cardano increased 2.4% to $0.677. XRP led the group with a 3.1% gain to $2.155. Regulatory & Institutional Developments Circle, the issuer of USDC, has engaged JPMorgan and Citi to underwrite its planned IPO with a target valuation between $4–$5 billion. This marks a renewed effort following its shelved 2021 SPAC merger, signaling fresh momentum for stablecoin infrastructure. A new proposal from the Bitcoin Policy Institute calls on the U.S. Treasury to issue $2 trillion in “Bitcoin-Enhanced Bonds,” allocating $200 billion to BTC to build a strategic reserve. The structure offers investors Bitcoin-linked upside with reduced fixed yields, aiming to integrate Bitcoin into debt management and institutional portfolios. Looking Ahead U.S. markets are moving cautiously ahead of Wednesday’s expected trade announcement. While investor opinion is mixed on the longer-term implications, current market adjustments reflect a desire for clarity on new tariffs. The week is packed with key data and policy events: the ADP employment report and February factory orders on Wednesday could provide further insight into economic resilience and help shape investor positioning. Meanwhile, Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls release will offer fresh insight into labor market health, shaping expectations for the Fed’s next move. Stella Zlatareva, Nexo Dispatch editor

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